I don’t know about you, but I was a bit underwhelmed by the media’s reaction to the derby win on Monday night. Negative (from a City point of view) coverage had been pretty intense in the 48 hours before the game, but on Tuesday our win was swept under the carpet by the usual media suspects in a way which many people suspect would not have been the case had we lost. Probably because I hadn’t had my thirst for positive coverage sated, and was not yet quite ready to move on from the derby to the semi final, I decided to look back in a bit of detail at how we have fared against the rags since Mancini became manager. What led me to think of the title of this piece (which does I admit sound a bit like a doo-wop band from the 50s) was the spin coming out of the Theatre of Dreams since Monday – that Van Persie had played a blinder, that the rags had outperformed their blue counterparts and were undone by a solitary moment of brilliance from Aguero, that Tevez was offside for Milner’s goal but the two footed tackles from Welbeck and Rooney didnt happen. That, of course, and that banner which read “normal service has been resumed”.

First, the basic stats. We have played Them 12 times under Mancini’s watch. (I thought twice about including the Community Shield as a meaningful fixture as it is more of a pre season friendly than a competitive game – see eg the changes made at half time. In the end I thought on balance the better approach was to include it but to be cautious about drawing conclusions from that alone, since (a) against Them there is no such thing as a ‘friendly’, and (b) anomalous or otherwise it is still a match which decides where a trophy will go.)

The results of our derbies under Mancini are as follows (our score first whether home or away):
09/10 – CCSF(h) 2 – 1; CCSF (a) 1 – 3; PL (h) 0 – 1
10/11 – PL (h) 0 – 0; PL (a) 1 – 2; FACSF (Wembley) 1 – 0
11/12 – COM SHIELD (Wembley) 2 – 3; PL (a) 6 – 1; FAC3 (h) 2 – 3; PL (h) 1 – 0
12/13 – PL (h) 2 – 3; PL (a) 2 – 1

The bare statistics are not at all depressing. Under Mancini we have won five, drawn one and lost six times against Them – one defeat of course being the Community Shield. We have scored 20 times to their 18. We have knocked them out of one tournament at the semi final stage, they have knocked us out of one. Looking at our record against Them since Mancini became manager, we probably come out level pegging with the rags taking the period as a whole.

When you factor in the development of our club, and what has been going on off the pitch at the same time, the position is even more encouraging. It is interesting to compare the starting XIs from our first starting match against Them under Mancini, the Wembley semi final and the most recent derby:
19/1/10 CCSF (h) Given, Richards, Zabaleta, Garrido, Kompany, De Jong, Wright Phillips, Boyata, Barry, Tevez, Bellamy
16/4/11 FAC SF (Wembley) Hart, Zabaleta, Kompany, Lescott, Kolarov, Johnson, Barry, Silva, De Jong, Yaya Toure, Balotelli
8/4/13 PL (a) Hart, Zabaleta, Kompany, Nastasic, Clichy, Barry, Yaya Toure, Milner, Silva, Nasri, Tevez
What is noticeable is that the change between the starting line ups from January 10 to April 11 is a fair bit more pronounced than that from April 11 to April 13. The Wembley team looks a lot like a Mancini team of today might look – 9 of the Wembley team have featured regularly for us this season whereas only four of the CC team has. This of course reflects the major rebuilding of the team done in the summer of 2010 – Given, Garrido, Wright Phillips, Boyata and Bellamy were no longer first team choices by the beginning of the 10/11 season, being replaced by new signings such as Silva, Yaya Toure and Kolarov, and the return of Joe Hart from his loan spell at Birmingham.

So if you strip out the results produced by the teams Mancini inherited from his predecessor (Mark Hughes, obviously) and look solely at the results Mancini’s teams have achieved, we have a rather better record against them than they do against us, especially if you attach less importance to the Community Shield. Since the beginning of the 10/11 season, we have played Them eight times (not including the Community Shield) and beaten them four times, drawing once and losing three. The total goals for and against is much happier reading too – 15 for and 10 against. Moreover, if you look at just the last two seasons, again excluding the Community Shield, in the five ‘competitive’ matches we have beaten them three times, and their victory in the FA Cup was somewhat anomalous for two reasons – first, Kompany was of course sent off so early that 90% of the match was 10 v 11, and secondly both sides had played slightly less than full strength teams given that it was the 3rd round rather than for instance a semi final.

To put the same point in perhaps a different way, in Mancini’s first five games against the rags we won only once, but of the next 6 fully competitive games we have won four of them. Added to that is the fact that the two really massive, trophy-defining matches of the last two years have both been won by us. Admittedly, Mancini’s very first encounter with them (with the team he inherit from Hughes) was a semi final which we lost, and there is no doubting how much that hurt at the time, nor how glad they were to stop us from winning a trophy at long last at least for another year. But since then, on both occasions where the derby has had a massive influence of the eventual destiny of a trophy (the Wembley semi final and the PL game last April) we have beaten them. Wembley was a significant game: the first ever Manchester derby played at Wembley, with the winners being Clear favourites to win the tournament, and we beat them. Last April was one of the most intensively watched, high stakes/high pressure games that you will ever witness in domestic football in any part of the world, and we beat them: where we stepped up to the plate when the world was watching from South America to Japan, they bottled it.

So if you look at the head-to-head record in recent times, we come out of it significantly ahead of Them, as three league wins in the last four matches shows. Our trend as against them is firmly on the up, whereas theirs against us is heading downwards.

Another measure of this is the way we have approached derby games: Mancini was criticised in his first home league derby for being too defensive. He later explained that it was a lot more important to avoid defeat at that point of our development, that we could cope much better with the absence of a victory than we could with a defeat, and with the benefit of hindsight he was spot on. The rags were there for the taking that night, but we didn’t necessarily have a team which was ready to take them. Later that same season, much the same team was by then ready take them, and did so at Wembley. Now, home or away we go into every game against them with our primary objective being not merely to avoid defeat, but to beat them. Of course, as fans, lots of us did that anyway: but nowadays it is realistic, and we have more ammunition than just our passion and desire.

This I think is significant: there is I believe somewhere else on the forum a thread in which Mancini’s merits as a manager are debated, but one way (not the only way by a long chalk) of testing his merits is to see how he fares against the pisscan. Whatever faults Taggart has, I can’t remember many seasons where the scum have finished outside the top two in the last 20 years, nor are there many seasons in which they have finished trophyless, so a good head-to-head record against him is not to be sniffed at.

Statistically and tactically Mancini comes out ahead. The home league games against the scum in 10/11 and 11/12 are an interesting illustration of this. In 11/12 they went into the game as we did in 10/11, the primary objective being to avoid defeat. The difference is that we achieved our objective, they did not, and when they set out for a draw they had the league title on the line. We all saw Taggart lose it that day on the touchline. He doesn’t like losing to us, no manager likes losing derby matches. But he couldn’t handle us taking the league title away from him in front of his eyes and being unable to do anything about it. We now go into derby day cautious, but anticipating a win home or away. Before the 6-1 we went in to derby day hopeful of victory but not really expecting it. The shift in attitude that has been achieved in this respect – our strong new mentality, if you like – is in my view Mancini’s third most important achievement at City, coming behind only the ending of the 35 year trophy free period, and bringing the first title home since 1968. Mancini may or may not be the manager for the next three seasons: but if he is, mark my words, regularly beating the scum will be a hallmark of his tenure. In future years, as last year, having the edge over the scum in the head to heads might have a big impact on the final destination of the title.

There are some other interesting statistics which arise under Mancini. Joe Hart has kept goal against Them under Mancini eight times, has kept three clean sheets and has let in a total of ten goals including three in the Comm Shield – so seven goals conceded in seven fully competitive games. By contrast, De Gea has kept goal against us five times (also including the Comm Shield). He is yet to keep a clean sheet against us and has let in 13 goals in total, 11 of them in matches other than the community shield. The only time he has not conceded at least two goals was last April, the game that set us up to win the league.

More concerning, under Mancini we have entered injury time in a game against Them with the scores level on five occasions (I include the CCSF in this, as although we were losing 2-1 on the night the tie was level at 3-3). Only once however have we then gone on to draw the game. The Community Shield is a little anomalous in that when they scored the winner, we had piled everybody upfield in search for a winner ourselves, something we probably would not have done if extra time or a draw had been available. It is also noticeable that two of those four last minute winners came in Mancini’s first half-season, namely the CCSF and Scholes’ header at our place in the league. Nonetheless, it is a concerning statistic.

On the other hand, we have entered injury time against them level or ahead in 9 games of the 12 we have played under Mancini. It says something about them (something we have learned from) that so many times they have found last minute winners against us, but whatever that says about their mentality, it suggests that for the last two or three or years they have been inferior or at least no better than us over 90 minutes in terms of pure ability, but (until recently) ahead in terms of self-belief. Moreover, all of our wins against Them under Mancini have been by a single goal margin other than the 6-1 (where they were of course down to 10 men): so even though they have scored four late winners, not once have they scored a late equaliser against us under Mancini. It is a curious feature of their much vaunted self belief that – at least against us – they can drag themselves ahead when they are level and the game enters time added on, but they cannot drag themselves level when they are behind and time is almost up.

A similar curiosity is the fact that in the 11 games under Mancini against Them which have not ended in draws, the team which has scored first has won on nine occasions – and of the other two, one was the CCSF which is slightly anomalous because it is played over two legs and the other was the Community Shield. So in every fully competitive game in which the result was decided on that occasion, the team who scored first went on to win the game. Of course it can happen that a team comes from behind to win, but the importance of the first goal cannot be over emphasised.

Speaking of which, it is worth thinking about the style in which they have scored against us. A very large proportion of their goals against us have come from either fast breaks or balls delivered from wide areas (or both). By my reckoning, 14 of the 18 goals conceded under Mancini against them have come in one of these two ways. For every time they score from a long shot (eg Fletcher in the 6-1) or play their way through us (Nani in the Comm Shield) they score three or four on the break or by whipping in balls from wide positions. It was noticeable on Monday night that they seemed most dangerous on the break and from set pieces. We have played them four times since the 6-1 and it has been noticeable every time since that they have set themselves up to defend in depth but counter attack at pace, moving the ball out wide at the earliest opportunity. It is again a tacit acknowledgement that if they go at us toe-to-toe they expect to come off second best, but they see another way to beat us. In his post match interview on Monday Mancini seemed to be hinting that they are starting to play anti-football, and he seems to have a point at least when it comes to playing us: contain and press hard, and hope to score on the break or with a set piece. Stoke and Everton do much the same thing.

By contrast, our goals against them have come in a number of ways: we have sliced them open several times (whether playing 10 or 11), we have loaded pressure on them until they have broken, we have scored with fast breaks, shots from distance and headers from set pieces, we have pounced on their mistakes, we have kept possession and made it count by working an opportunity. (We have curiously had only one penalty given against them in the last 12 meetings, which is a little odd given how frequently we get them generally.) Monday was not the first time recently that they have been given a footballing lesson by us. I think in derby games of the next few years a common feature will be that win lose or draw we will have more possession than them and the goals we score will largely come as a result of that, whereas the goals they score will largely come from breaks and set pieces.

There’s lots more that you could say about our recent derbies, but for now, I have drunk my fill, no thanks to the media. It is uncomfortable that we seem to be particularly vulnerable to last minute winners, that we are vulnerable to wide balls whipped into the box and to fast counter attacks. On the other hand, we are better than them: simply being better doesn’t guarantee victory, as their last 2 wins at our place have shown, but it does produce the situation (as the stats demonstrate) that we are winning more games against them than we are losing. Given how many times they have finished as either champions or runners up in the last 20 years, and given the number of trophies they have won in that time, that is not a bad yardstick of how good a team Mancini has built.

Now, Chelsea.

The morning after the QPR game I spent about £15 on papers and wedged myself behind a table at a local greasy spoon. There, I immersed myself in bacon, match reports, eggs, Shaun Custis, sausages, Martin Samuel and about a gallon of tea. While the world left me alone for an hour, I basked in the title victory and began to come to terms with the word ‘Champions’. That hour was not the time for deep reflections or analysis of the campaign, that was time for some self-indulgent wallowing whilst 44 years of pain were washed away.

But as the dust has settled on the season, it has become easier to look back and see the patterns emerge. In particular, the four games against the rags stand out for me like milestones along the journey, illustrating graphically what was going on with our club on and off the field at each of the times we played them. This is not some rag-fuelled obsession – it is simply that those games turned out to be barometers of a title winning season: one season in four games, if you like. Those matches could have been real banana skins for us (two almost were) but in the end the pattern of those games highlights and exemplifies much about our season and provides perhaps some real pointers for the future.

We kicked off in August with the Community Shield at Wembley. We were not, in truth, widely fancied either for the game itself or the league campaign to follow. In an eve of season poll of 30 BBC pundits, 26 had tipped United to retain the championship, with only three brave souls predicting a City title win – one being GMR’s Ian Cheeseman. Mark Bright bravely tipped Liverpool who only missed out on the title by 38 points. But at Wembley, against the run of predictions, and rather against the run of play, we established a two goal lead before half time. The second half saw United fight back to 2-2, but with Mancini chasing the win towards the end of a bad tempered contest, an uncharacteristic slip by Vincent Kompany allowed Nani to hare upfield and skip round Joe Hart to win the game. United celebrated with their customary restraint and modesty. Wayne Rooney told the world that this result showed who the better team was, and then tweeted some gloating nonsense about a footballing lesson – the lesson presumably being how satisfying it is to win a trophy at the expense of your fiercest rivals by scoring deep in injury time.

There were straws which showed the way the wind was really blowing for those who cared to look for them. David De Gea had been weighed, measured and found wanting. The Typically Defensive Italian had sent nine men up to United’s area in search of a winner with the score at 2-2. A full strength United barely coped with a City short of Tevez and Aguero and with Samir Nasri looming on the horizon. None of that stopped the media cliche factory from clicking into gear: Scholes and Neville were gone but Jones and Cleverley had taken their place; Fergie had once again conjured a youthful team who would storm the premiership; moneybags Manchester City had no clear vision other than to buy every player in sight and hope it would all come good; another injury time winner for the relentless United machine.

There was no doubt that the general consensus of opinion in punditland was that the Good Guys had won and the Bad Guys had lost. Whilst Matt Lawson in the Daily Mail viewed City as ‘too defensive’, Martin Keown compared United’s attacking play to Barcelona’s. (Seriously.) Gary Neville proclaimed Mario Balotelli to be an ‘embarrassment’, and Graham Poll considered City fortunate to end the game with 11 men still on the pitch. And with appropriate lip-service paid to the need for caution, the media at large satisfied itself that the season would probably pan out in much the same way as the match at Wembley: City’s wealth might take them so far, but in the end United’s know how and class would see them home. Steve Howard, writing in The Sun, summed up the prevailing mood when he wrote ‘this was a result to make football itself stand up and cheer’. Mark that phrase. Mark it well.

As the season proper got under way, there were signs that the traffic along Fleet Street was not entirely moving one way. Henry Winter, one of the more thoughtful of football writers, was interviewed at half time during City’s first home game against Swansea. His optimism about City’s prospects deserves credit, for at the time City were drawing 0-0 against a newly promoted side widely tipped to go straight back down. But whilst Winter’s was not a lone voice, it certainly did not represent the main stream of opinion. Nonetheless, it became clear as the season progressed that the Universally Hostile Press of 2010-11 had mellowed into merely a Mostly Hostile Press.

As the second derby approached, City began to attract more plaudits for their entertaining and attractive football. As in 1967, notice of a genuine title challenge was served with a thumping win over Spurs. Scoring three or four goals a time was commonplace as Blackburn, Villa and Wigan were put to the sword. Even our nemesis Everton was dismissed without troubling the scorers. But although City deservedly topped the league, United would not let us get away. We scored three against Bolton, they scored five. We put five past Spurs, they put eight past Arsenal. Rags regularly pointed out, as the derby approached, that Spurs were the only side of note we had played whilst they had faced not only Spurs but Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool as well. So the marketing men at Sky could scarcely have hoped for better material to hype up the October derby. Two unbeaten teams going head to head; First against Second; the richest club in the world against the most famous club in the world at the top of the best league in the world; the two best attacks against the two meanest defences; all that money v all that history. (And it’s live.)

When the game kicked off, the rags undoubtedly had the better of the first 15 minutes or so but by the time we went ahead we had already achieved more than just a foothold in the game. Our half time lead was thoroughly deserved taking the first 45 minutes as a whole. But early in the second half Mario ‘embarrassment’ Balotelli was put clean through on goal following a neat one-two with Aguero, and the rest as they say is history. Later, the gracious Glaswegian would point to the sending off as the decisive moment of the game. I’m not so sure about that. In a one-on-one situation you would back Balotelli to score more often than not and certainly against David de Gea at that point in the season. So the real effect of the sending off may well have been to keep the score at 1-0 for 15 minutes longer than would otherwise have been the case. Had they been chasing the game for 45 minutes at 2-0 down, even with 11 men there is every chance we would have taken them apart just as clinically as we did after Evans’ red card.

But as it was, with the rags a man short City controlled the game totally. In the end it really could, as the song says, have been ten. A five point lead – clear blue water – had opened up between us and them; but the game was about much more than three points or local bragging rights. We had been stringing 20 pass goals together for quite a few games before James Milner crossed for Balotelli’s second. When we penned them back in their own half for lengthy periods it was no more and no less than we had done to every other team since the season began. But now Football sat up and took notice. ‘Another flowing Manchester City move’ was how Alan Parry described Aguero’s goal, and with complete justification – we had been doing this all season, only now we were doing it in the champions’ yard. And if we learned one thing only from that game it was that, like most bullies, United cannot take a hiding.

The cautious media approval that had been building since the season got under way now turned into open fawning. Jamie Redknapp considered the win to be the biggest statement of intent any side had made in the premier league era. In The Guardian, Kevin McCarra suggested that ‘only a curmudgeon could fail to appreciate the accomplishment of City’. Paul Hayward in the same paper was not alone in acknowledging David Silva was to be ‘comfortably the player of the season so far’. Who needs Carlos Tevez, asked Gary Neville, when you have Dzeko, Balotelli and Aguero? On the pitch, we continued to take teams apart, scoring three or more goals in each of the five games we played following the 6-1. Norwich, Newcastle and Stoke were all put to the sword in the weeks that followed. Wolves conceded eight in two games against us in the space of four days, despite an abysmal refereeing display from Stuart Attwell at the Etihad. Which brings us nicely to the issue which dominated the middle third of the season: some appalling, inconsistent and possibly biased refereeing.

Nobody had noted a serious problem with referees prior to the Old Trafford derby. But as we approached the turn of the year, especially away from home, we could scarcely get through a game without being on the wrong end of some controversial decision. An Agger elbow on Aguero at Liverpool resulted in no more than a free kick, whereas Balotelli’s flailing arm when challenging for a header led to a red card. David Silva was denied the clearest of penalties at Chelsea with the score at 1-0 and City in the ascendancy, but Lescott was later penalised for handball when he might easily have been given the benefit of the doubt. Clichy was sent off for offences similar to those for which Meireles went unpunished. In a tight game at West Brom, a good City goal was wrongly ruled out, though in the next tight game at Sunderland an offside goal was allowed to stand. Charlie Adam kicked all and sundry at the Etihad without a card being shown, Gareth Barry picked up two yellow cards from three innocuous fouls in the same game. There were dark mutterings as to where this spate of dreadful decisions had come from.

Despite all that, City fans were in general licking their lips when the third round draw of the FA Cup brought the rags to our door. Our first defence of the only trophy we had won in 35 years could scarcely have been more apt. In front of their own fans – well, if truth be told, in front of a fast-emptying stadium – we had demolished them. What would we do to them on our own turf?

As things turned out, the prospect of giving them another good hiding lasted less than a quarter of an hour. We bossed the first 10 minutes. They scored a good goal on the break, but we had scored 3 times in five minutes more than once this season already and being 0-1 down to the rags with 80 minutes to go did not faze us. But then Vincent Kompany slid in to make a good interception – or so we all thought. What had not even looked like a foul, certainly not a dangerous or reckless challenge, led Mr Foy – in surely his last ever appearance at the Etihad – to show a red card. With perhaps a little help from his assistant referee Mr Rooney. United took full advantage, as we had done in October, and by half time had raced into a 3-0 lead. And in truth, it could have been worse.

Many have said that the interval in this game with the scoreboard showing City 0 United 3 – the first time the Etihad scoreboard had ever registered such a travesty – represented our lowest point of the season. Had we been asked after the demolition derby whether the rags would ever put six past us on our own ground, we might have answered ‘not in my lifetime’. As the second half loomed it looked like they could do it within the next half hour.

But then two things happened. First, the team began to fight. Mancini – he who was derided for having no Plan B – reorganised the team so we played with 3 at the back and five across the middle. That did not put us on the front foot so much as staunch the bleeding from the first half wounds. And we came out snarling and ready for the scrap in the second half. Mancini’s changes worked, and City started to take the game to them.

Next, the crowd began to fight. Some had left at half time – and who could blame them, we have been through so much pain over the years. But an embarrassing evacuation of the sort we saw at the swamp was never on the cards. This was a Manchester Derby. We stand our ground, we never run. And we do not give in to Them – ever. Remember winning 4-3 at Spurs without Barton? We have done this before, we can do it again. Kolarov drilled in a free kick and we really had something to shout about. The stadium got behind the team in a way I can scarcely remember when we have been behind against the rags. Loud and proud. We escaped a very strong penalty shout – frankly Foy should have given it, but as is often the case, he perhaps over compensated for his earlier decision. And at the other end De Gea spilled a shot, Aguero pounced, and it was 2-3. Game on.

The rags – against 10 men – had seen their healthy lead evaporate and were now hanging on by their fingernails. But the third goal did not come. We went close: Kolarov tested De Gea with another free kick. Big Pants, up for a corner in the dying seconds, flashed a header wide. In the end, however, it was not to be. The rag cheers at the final whistle were cheers of relief as much as celebration, for when it had been 10 v 11 in our favour, we had humiliated them. When it was 10 v 11 in their favour we came close to humiliating them again. For the first time I can remember, a City team which had just been beaten at home by United was given a standing ovation as it left the field. The referee, not the opposition, had caused the defeat. We felt cheated, not beaten. We lost our trophy but not our pride.

There was something of the Dunkirk about that defeat. Like any home defeat by them it hurt badly, but it could have been an absolute disaster. For so long City have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory; now we had snatched defeat from the jaws of annihilation. What turned the game around was the fighting spirit displayed by the team and the crowd acting together (hashtag). Mancini and Khaldoon would both later pick out this performance as a key moment during the season. Mancini even described it as ‘important’. We would need that spirit – that ‘strong mentality’ – as the season progressed, and we found it when we were staring at catastrophe.

The next couple of months were endured rather than enjoyed. The Carling Cup slipped away. We missed Yaya and Kolo at the African Cup of Nations. There were suspensions for Kompany and Balotelli. We struggled away from home at Everton and Swansea, and rarely looked imperious on our travels even when we returned with three points. There were bright moments along the way – wins over Spurs, our old foes, and Chelsea, the latter featuring the return of Carlos Tevez to the fold; we saw some emphatic home wins over mediocre visitors. We even revived the Ballet on Ice against Fulham, though it ended up as something of a waltz. Overall, though, the first three months of the new year were dogged by uninspiring performances and disappointing decisions, especially on the road. And all the while, we watched United as they were gifted game upon game by one dodgy decision after another.

But even as our once healthy lead became an 8 point deficit, we hung in there grimly. Mancini maintained in private if not in public that our chance would come. And it did, as we put ten past Norwich and West Brom whilst United struggled against Wigan and Everton. The appalling prospect of watching our team applaud them onto our pitch as champions faded away. By the time they came back to the Etihad, our destiny was in our own hands: lose or draw and it was all over bar the shouting; beat them, and whilst it would go right down to the wire, winning our remaining games would surely see us home.

What followed may in years to come be heralded as the day City arrived as a major force in world football. An estimated 650 million people watched the game in clubs, bars and homes around the world, in the early morning in Australia and New Zealand, late into the night in Asia, and in the quiet of a Monday afternoon in the Americas. Those of us fortunate enough to have been there have never experienced anything quite like it, though the QPR game a fortnight later would come close. The build up to the game was hype on a scale barely witnessed before, and never in the context of a domestic league game. Our legends were all there. Diego was in town. Liam was in town. Richard was in town. (Scudamore, of course, who did you think I meant?) Sky were ejected from their normal studio next to the south stand scoreboard in favour of a foreign TV station, and the old studio in the opposite corner was pressed into emergency service. TV crews from the middle east, the far east, the States and South America interviewed fans around the ground. Our starting 11 featured internationals from 6 different nations, with five more nations represented on the bench.

And yet, this most cosmopolitan of Manchester derbies was settled in the most English fashion. A hulking centre half – the captain no less – went up for a corner and powered home a bullet header. It was Mike Doyle, Dave Watson, Andy Morrison and Steve Howey all rolled into one with a healthy dollop of Mick McCarthy and Richard Dunne rolled in for good measure. Who put the ball in United’s net? Vincent Kompany did. “Buzzin’ ‘” was how he would describe it in his Brussels-cum-Beswick accent. “Deeecent”.

United could not live with City in the second half. They had played the first half in their own third, but now they needed to attack more and find some penetration. They couldn’t do it. We looked closer to a second than they did to equalising, chances falling to Yaya and Nasri in particular. On the touchline, the gracious Glaswegian visibly lost it. Since October it had been rammed down our throats that United would come good in the run-in, like they always do. But when a really big performance was needed, they failed to muster a single shot on target. Their vaunted know-how simply deserted them. In one way, watching City surpass them in this fashion after they had thrown away an eight point lead was an even greater humiliation than the 6-1.

As in January, in the stands we roared them on. I have never heard the Etihad louder. The chorus of Blue Moon while the players left the field at half time was just immense, Hey Jude at the final whistle even more so. We had come onto the world stage and every single person associated with this club did themselves proud as that incredible spectacle unfolded. The fact that it was an intensely mancunian affair did not detract from its international appeal, it enhanced it. The Premier League suddenly understood that an acute cross-town rivalry at the top of the English league might actually eclipse the Spanish giants’ traditional rivalry, and indeed Maradona would later compare the Barcelona/Madrid El Clasico game unfavourably to the Manchester derby. Internet message boards around the globe buzzed with the game, the hype, criticism of the hype, discussion of the worldwide TV audience, analysis of what the game meant for the outcome of the league and the future of the two clubs. Not so long ago, the Manchester derby wasn’t even the major story in Manchester. Now it was the biggest talking point in World sport.

That game of course only laid the foundation for the title: nerve shattering games against Newcastle and QPR stood in our way. But we had done it: the title had been all but theirs, and we had wrestled it out of their hands while the world watched us do it. This really was a result to make Football itself stand up and cheer. And cheer it did, as it did when thirteen days later we secured the title in the most dramatic fashion. Football watched, Football drank it in. Football did the Poznan at the Stadium of Light, and cheered us from Swansea and from Stoke and from Stamford Bridge. The best ever finale to the best ever season in the Best League In The World. Football? Bloody hell.

So there you have our season, a 10 month white knuckle ride encapsulated in four games all against the same opposition. Unloved and unfancied going into the first game, United’s win cemented some lazy press attitudes which in truth were hangovers from the season before and had been unfair even then. By the second game, our free flowing football was taking apart all opposition, and our win at the swamp was in fact pretty typical of our autumn campaign. The FA cup game was mired in controversy, as were so many of our games at that time, but the fighting spirit which came through that day would stand us in good stead as the season approached its climax. And then the piece de resistance, the worldwide event that announced who we are in the modern age, the vital stepping stone to the title. The day we knocked the rags off their perch. Each one of those four games, especially the last, was potentially a banana skin on which we might so easily have slipped, leaving the rags to saunter ahead once again. How very very satisfying to have left those four skins behind.

One of the issues which has buzzed around the forum in recent weeks has been refereeing standards and consistency. Sometimes this is raised as part of the ‘agenda’ argument in the context of the rags appearing to get a lot more favourable decisions than us. Other times simply in the context of refereeing standards generally being poor this season. With this in mind, I did some research on City games this season featuring Sunday’s referee Lee Mason. The results are, frankly, worrying.

First, the results we have achieved with this referee in charge this season are not encouraging. He has refereed City matches three times – Swansea (a) West Brom (a) and Liverpool (h) (CC semi 1st leg). Despite averaging 2.5 goals per game away from home this season and 3 goals per game at home, we have not scored a single goal when he has been in charge. We lost to a late goal away at Swansea, drew 0-0 away at West Brom, and lost to an early penalty in the 1st leg of the Carling Cup.

The fact that we have not scored a single goal in 270 minutes of football officiated over by Mr Mason is remarkable compared to how we have fared with other referees in charge. Mike Jones has refereed us three times this season (Blackburn home, Liverpool home, Bolton away) and we have scored a total of 9 goals with him in charge. Martin Atkinson has refereed us 4 times (Wigan away, Liverpool away, QPR away, Wigan home) and we have scored a total of 8 goals with him in charge. Under Howard Webb it is 11 goals in 4 games (Stoke away, Spurs home, Norwich home, Everton home), with Phil Dowd in charge it is 15 in 6 games (Arsenal away, Sunderland home, Arsenal home, Blackburn away, Tottenham away and Liverpool away CC semi final 2nd leg). Even with Foy and Clattenberg we keep up the average – under Foy we have scored 11 in 3 games (Norwich away, Newcastle home and – of course – rags at home in FAC 3rd round) and under Clattenberg 11 in 4 games (Bolton home, Chelsea away, United away, Fulham away).

So if you exclude referees who have only refereed us once like Stuart Attwell or Anthony Taylor (as I would have thought one game is not enough to be statistically significant) this season we have scored on average between 2 and 3 goals a game no matter who the referee is. Except, that is, when Mr Mason is in charge, who is yet to award a single Manchester City goal.

Then there is the way he appears to referee the games we play in as evidenced by the red and yellow cards shown. (A lot of stats are in here which don’t make easy reading, but stick with it.)

Mr Mason’s wikipedia entry contains figures for the cards he issued in each season up to the present one. Last season, he refereed 33 games issuing 135 yellow cards and 5 reds in the process. By that standard, he neither appears to be exceptionally lenient nor particularly harsh: in the same season Martin Atkinson issued 143 yellows and 13 reds in 41 games, Mike Dean 147 yellows and 7 reds in 43 games and Mark Clattenberg 123 yellows and 7 reds in 40 games. So far as this season is concerned, Sport UK did a piece featured on Microsoft news not long ago based on stats from Opta, in which they said “Lee Mason has been the most lenient referee, showing a card only for every 8.3 fouls and, in 13 matches, is yet to send a player off.” That of course was written before he had refereed the United/QPR game.

So, against the background of him not being a particularly trigger-happy referee in terms of issuing cards, I was not surprised to see that in the 3 City fixtures he has refereed this season he had only issued 1 yellow card against City’s opponents. That yellow card was given against Carragher during the home leg of the Carling Cup semi final. But as many reading this will remember, that ’tackle’ was a clear two-footed lunge, which even Alan Hansen recognised was rather worse than the one for which Vincent Kompany had been dismissed by Chris Foy against the rags just a few days earlier. That willingness to show a yellow for a red card incident is troubling on its own.

The match stats for the three City fixtures Mr Mason has refereed are available via the BBC website. They show that in those games Mr Mason showed 4 yellow cards to City players in total – 2 at Swansea, one at West Brom, one against Liverpool. Now, 4 cards in 3 games doesn’t seem particularly excessive. And when you remember the Opta stat indicating that on average Mr Mason issues a card for every 8.3 fouls, those four cards – given that we committed in total 33 fouls in those 4 games – seems to be about par for the course.

But then you look at how our opponents were treated in those three games. Swansea committed 9 fouls against City without any yellow cards being issued (City were given 2 yellows in the same game having committed 14 fouls). West Brom committed 8 fouls without earning any yellow cards, whereas in the same game City committed 9 fouls earning one yellow card. Against Liverpool we got one card having committed 10 fouls, they got one yellow (which should have been a straight red) having committed 11 fouls. So taking the three games Mr Mason has refereed together, whilst the cards he issues against City are almost exactly in line with his season average he has issued only one card against City’s opponents despite 27 fouls being committed. The stats indicate that he is a lot more tolerant of fouls committed against City than in relation to any other team.

With this in mind, I looked at the stats from games in which Mr Mason refereed the other teams around us – say last year’s top 4 teams. How do the stats compare?

Depressingly.

He has refereed two rag league games this season, both of which the rags won. There was the 2-0 win against QPR when Ashley Young “won” a very early penalty which Derry was wrongly sent off for. QPR committed 10 fouls but did not get any further cards. United committed 13 fouls during that game receiving 1 yellow card. Then there was a 1-0 win against Sunderland, when Sunderland got two yellow cards having committed 14 fouls, and the rags having committed 6 fouls did not receive any cards. As for arsenal, Mason has refereed them twice in the league this season: a 1-0 win away at Everton, and a 3-1 home win over Stoke. In those two games, the total of 20 fouls committed by Arsenal produced one yellow card, the 24 fouls committed against Arsenal produced 4 yellow cards. He has refereed Chelsea three times in the league: a 4-2 win at home to Villa, a 3-0 win at home to Wolves, and a 2-1 win at home to West Brom. In those three games, Chelsea were issued with 3 yellow cards having committed 30 fouls in total, their opponents were issued with 7 yellow cards having committed 32 fouls in total. (I did say it was dry.)

So – here is the important bit – Mr Mason’s “fouls to cards” ratio when fouls are committed by City players is about 8 to 1, but the ratio is 19 to 1 when fouls are committed by United players, 20 to 1 when committed by Arsenal players and 10 to 1 when committed by Chelsea players. But when fouls are committed against City players, only 1 foul from 27 has attracted a caution (and that should have been a red) but when fouls are committed against United players the ratio is 3 cards in 24 (including Derry’s red card), when committed against Arsenal players it is 4 in 24 and when fouls are committed against Chelsea players it is 7 in 32.

Having mentioned the Ashley Young/Shaun Derry incident, what about penalties in City games featuring Mr Mason? Again, the stats are revealing and worrying. We have earned 7 penalties this season, none of which were awarded by Mr Mason. 7 penalties in 37 games equates to a penalty every 475 minutes – one every five games or so. Against that background, Mr Mason’s failure to award City a penalty in the three games he has refereed is not especially troubling.

But what about penalties awarded against City? This season, unless I’ve missed some out, penalties have been awarded against us in domestic competition this season on five occasions – Liverpool away (CC), Liverpool home (CC), Swansea away, Wolves home and Chelsea away. So far as Wolves home and Chelsea away are concerned, I don’t think most blues would complain – the Lescott penalty at Chelsea seemed harsh in the match situation, for instance, but no more harsh than the penalty given against Bosingwa at our place for a very similar offence, and the penalty given against Micah Richards at Anfield was just plain wrong.

That leaves the penalties given at Swansea and in the first leg of the CC semi – both of which were given by Mr Mason.

This produces a remarkable series of statistics. We have played 40 domestic games this season so far (not including Community Shield). Three penalties have been awarded against us in the 37 games which did not involve Mr Mason as referee; but two penalties have been awarded against us in the three games Mr Mason did handle. To put the same point slightly differently, Mr Mason has refereed only 7.5% of our games this season but has given 40% of the penalties against us. Three penalties in 37 games without Mr Mason in charge equates to 1 penalty awarded against us every 1,110 minutes. With Mr Mason in charge, 1 penalty is awarded against us every 135 minutes – so we are almost 10 times as likely to concede a penalty with Mr Mason in charge than we are when anybody else is refereeing. Whilst he has awarded 2 penalties against us in 3 games, for instance, Howard Webb has not awarded any against us in 4 matches he has taken charge of, Martin Atkinson has not awarded any against us in the 4 matches he has taken charge of, and Phil Dowd – who has awarded more penalties (according to Opta) this year in the league than any other referee – has awarded only one despite refereeing us on 6 occasions.

Of course, you can do a lot with statistics, and the stats don’t tell you that we happened to play poorly in each of the three games Mr Mason refereed. Statistics don’t tell you whether someone was actually tripped in the penalty area or not. There is no automatic correlation between the number of fouls in a game and the number of cards shown – some fouls are far worse than others.

But statistics can and do portray trends and the trends are frankly worrying. Mr Mason has refereed something like 30 matches this season (including cup games) so there is enough raw material for the average of 8.3 fouls for each card shown to be meaningful, and there is enough of a discrepancy between that average and the number of cards shown to teams playing City for that to be statistically significant. There is enough of a discrepancy between the penalties he awards against City and the number of penalties other referees award to be statistically significant. The fact that he is 10 times more likely to award a penalty against City raises questions even if that just happens to be a statistical quirk. Then there is the fact that three of last year’s top 4 sides have won every game this season which Mr Mason has refereed, scoring 16 goals between them whilst conceding only 4, whereas City have yet to score with him in charge.

Thjere are, of course, ‘lies, damn lies and statistics.’ But in relation to the all these issues, the scale of the discrepancies between how City perform when Mr Mason is in charge, and
(i) how they do when he isn’t in charge, and
(ii) how the teams around us do when he is in charge
indicates that the results may well be more than just statistical quirks produced by us playing badly on those occasions when he happened to be in charge.

By the same yardstick, some thought it was no surprise that away at Everton with Peter Walton in charge we played badly, didn’t get a lot of decisions and ended up losing 1-0. We have too much history with Mr Walton, especially when he is refereeing Everton/City games.

We have looked really good in the last couple of games, but despite the thrashings we have handed out to WBA and Norwich, I have a bad feeling about Sunday, and Mr Mason is the reason for it.

Some of the topics discussed in the blog recently have been fairly heavyweight – City’s recent financial statements and the implications for FFP and so on. This one is utterly self-indulgent: it is me wallowing in the quality, quantity and diversity of the goals we are currently blessed with. Blues, I hope you enjoy. Dippers, with your 17 goals in 13 games and rags (all those one-nils – are you Arsenal in disguise?) read on and weep.

First the stats. In the Premier League, in 14 games so far we have scored 48 goals, 24 at home, 24 away. In our seven trips away from home, won by a margin of four goals or more three times and we have scored three or more goals on five occasions away from home. In total, we have scored three or more goals 11 times in our first 14 games, and scored four or more on six occasions. Only once (Liverpool away) have we failed to score more than one goal. Thirteen different players have scored in the league, the top scorers being Aguero on 11 (without actually playing a full 90 minutes for us yet) Dzeko 10 (you will have seen the stat on the OS the other week clocking him at a goal every 58 minutes he was on the pitch) Balotelli 7 (if you don’t want to do any work today, just go to www.mariobalotelli.com and enjoy) Silva and AJ 4 each, and then Milner (2), Nasri (2) Kompany (2) Yaya (2) and Barry, Savic, Richards and Kolarov with one each. In the premier league alone, we average 3.43 goals per game. At the other end, we have let in 4 goals at home, kept 4 clean sheets in total (slightly worrying that only one clean sheet has been kept away from Eastlands) and conceded 13 goals in total, at an average of 0.93 goals per game.

Statistically, a 3-1 win is basically an average City result in the league this season.

In the other competitions, in a further 9 games (inc. Community Shield) we have scored 17 more goals – Balotelli and Dzeko 3 each, Yaya and Aguero on 2, and a goal each from Lescott, Kolarov, AJ, Nasri, Scapuzzi and Hargreaves and one own goal (arguably two). Our average in the Champions League is not so good, with just 7 goals in our 5 games to date, but even so we have scored more than we have conceded. In the Carling Cup our three games so far have provided eight goals.

In all competitions, then, we have scored 65 goals at an average of 2.83 per game whilst conceding 24 goals in 23 games. In all competitions, our top scorers to date are Dzeko and Aguero on 13 goals, then Balotelli (10) and then AJ on 5. Yaya and Silva have 4 each, Nasri 3. In total, 16 different City players have scored for us this season in one competition or another.

That number of different goal scorers is striking (sorry for the pun). How’s this for a team: Hart, Richards, Kompany, Savic, Kolarov, Barry, Yaya, Silva, Milner, Aguero, Dzeko. That team is a pretty strong line-up, but has been selected purely on the basis of outfield players who have scored a league goal for us – and it doesn’t even feature Mario! And only the centre-backs have scored their goals from set pieces (2 headers for Komps, one for Savic). All the others have scored at least once from open play – even the full backs. So we have got three main strikers who are looking like they will (injuries permitting) end up with 20+ goals in the league this season, plus three or four more who look like they will enter double figures. And when your full backs pop up with real poacher’s goal in the opposition penalty area (Micah vs Newcastle, Kolarov vs Wolves) you know you must be doing something right. 100+ league goals is not just within our grasp, but IMO it would be a major disappointment not to achieve from here on in.

Even more striking has been the sheer quality of some of the finishing. You can use hyperbole like ‘clinical’ and ‘surgical’ and it scarcely does it justice. I can barely count the number of times our goals have been precise finishes right into the bottom corner – Balo vs Rags and Birmingham in CC, Aguero against Wigan and Fulham, AJ against Norwich and Villa, Dzeko and Merlin at QPR, Nasri at Wolves, Yaya against Norwich and away at Villareal. As technique goes, it’s brilliant: if a shot is on course to clip the post on its way in and the opposing ‘keeper saves it, fair play to him. But by getting the shot right in the bottom corner you give yourself the best possible chance of scoring, and this season so far it is being done to perfection. We seem pretty hot shooting from distance too. Last season, I can scarcely remember a single City goal scored from distance . This season, they are coming in spades: Aguero against Swansea, Barry vs Bolton, AJ at Blackburn, Dzeko at Spurs and at Wembley vs Rags, Hargreaves, Milner… the list goes on.

Some of my personal favourites have been five- or six-yard tap ins, because the move that preceded them has often been just fantastic. Again I’m spoiled for choice in picking them out, but Dzeko’s first and third at Spuds, Mario’s second and Aguero’s at the swamp (preceded by some gorgeous one-touch passing), Aguero again against Villareal, Dzeko’s against Swansea and Wolves in the CC. Each one has been the result of ‘another flowing City move’ (as Alan Parry said of Aguero’s goal during the 6-1). In a similar vein it has been nice to see poachers on hand to pick up the pieces from goalkeeper parries – Dzeko v Swansea, Mario at Napoli, even Kolarov v Wolves.

Some of the individual skill and inventiveness involved in a goal has been quite brilliant. Aguero against Norwich was a good example – a real goal out of nothing. Then there has been Mario’s overhead against Villa, Dzeko’s sublime header at Spuds, Merlin at QPR, Yaya’s footwork for his second at Villareal. And the quality of some of the assists has been incredible – Silva’s inch perfect pass for Milner vs Everton, Aguero hooking the ball back with an inch to spare for Silva vs Swansea, Nasri’s delivery on a plate for Dzeko at Spurs and for Aguero vs Wigan, AJ’s sublime flick for Aguero at Arsenal, Silva’s reverse passes which led to Mario’s second at the swamp and the Richards penalty v Newcastle, skipping away from 3 for Aguero’s second at Wigan and of course (saving the best till last) THAT pass at the swamp.

One of the interesting things about our goal haul is that some areas which are really productive for other teams – set pieces, headers, direct free kicks – barely register for us. In all competitions (inc Comm Shield) we have scored only two direct free kicks (Kolarov v Napoli and Nasri on Saturday), and we have scored with headers direct from free kicks or corners only four times (Lescott v rags at Wembley, Komps v Villa and at Dippers, Savic at Blackburn). Only two headers from open play – Yaya at QPR and Dzeko at spuds – and three penalties. We have only missed one penalty all season, that from a player whose name I prefer not to mention. We have worked a number of goals from short corners – Yaya v Norwich, Barry at Bolton, and have scored following corners (Mario v Villa, Dzeko’s first at the swamp) . In the league, I make it 41 of our 48 goals have come from open play including short corner routines. Only one of our goals has been really gifted by the opposition – Dzeko’s v Wolves. AJ had some help from a Villa defender but still had a lot to do with the finish, and the one OG we have benefited from was a tap in for Dzeko if Macheno (?) hadn’t beaten him to it. Summing it all up, in open play – especially in the league – we are pretty darn lethal.

It is interesting to compare these stats with last season. Overall, last season we scored 60 league goals, 34 at home, 26 away. We won by 3 goals or more on five occasions, scoring 3 or more ten times in total. In terms of matching these stats this season we are pretty much there or thereabouts already. If that comparison doesn’t leave you satisfied, consider this: according to F365 “in the whole of 2005/06 City only scored 43 goals and in the entirety of 2006/07 they only scored three times in a match on three occasions”. Moreover, of our 60 league goals in season 2010-11, 19 were scored by the Player Who Formerly Wore The No 32 Shirt and 8 were penalties. (Our top scorers otherwise were Mario (6), Yaya (5) AJ and Merlin with 4 each.) Not difficult to conclude that we are actually doing far better without him than we did with him.

A lot of us have been frustrated by the number of goals we have been conceding. It’s interesting to look at the pattern of goals we have conceded, especially in the league. Again, first the stats. In 1260 minutes of play in the league this season, we have been behind for less than 20, in the first half at QPR. We have conceded goals in 10 games. In 8 of those games we were leading by two clear goals when we conceded, and in 6 of them the opposition’s goal came when we were winning 3-0 or more and there were fewer than 25 minutes remaining on the clock (Spuds, rags, Wolves, Barcodes, Villa, Norwich). Each one of the goals we have conceded at home has been when we were 3-0 up and cruising. To put it another way, when the outcome of the game has been truly in the balance, we have conceded only 7 goals in our 14 games. You could say that lack of concentration when we should be home and hosed has been our chief problem in the league this season. Fortunately, so far it has only cost us points once, away at Fulham, when a narrow offside call denied Sergio a hattrick (and from that, surely Fulham would not have found a way back). We could have worse problems.

Finally, there have been some goals which have just had the X factor about them – I can’t do it any more justice than that, but they were just goals that made you smile more than usual, and not just because of the skill involved. Mario’s overhead against Villa had it, so did his off-the-shoulder number against Norwich, and so did his opener at the swamp (if only for the T shirt). Merlin’s nutmeg of De Gea at the swamp (following Dzeko’s nutmeg of Camelface for the assist) is another. Aguero’s second vs Swansea for the sheer ‘wow’ factor, and Dzeko’s second at the swamp – in which he developed the novel technique of smacking it straight at their keeper and watching him jump out of the way – also make the shortlist.

But my personal favourite X factor goal is Aguero’s winner at Arsenal – at the Emirates where we had never won previously. Let’s face it, we had been pretty ordinary all evening: a lot of stuff didn’t come off, Dzeko should have buried a header a few minutes earlier, their ‘keeper hadnt made a save all night and Arse looked in all honesty more likely to score than us. Then, a piece of magic on the edge of his own area from Dzeko, a great run and pass to AJ, his wonderful control and flick to set it up for Sergio, and a precision match winning finish. As someone said in one of the post match threads, 14 seconds after Arsenal take a corner, City are ahead. Pretty much the only piece of real quality play from us all evening, but enough to give us the win.

Cometh the hour, cometh the man.